PLoS: estimates of respiratory failure from H1N1 in US

My foray onto knols -- just published one in PLoS Currents: Influenza that models the H1N1 epidemic in the US and estimates the number of acute respiratory failure cases that we can expect during the season. Pretty huge numbers! The table is reproduced here:

Table. Model input parameters and outcome estimates

Input Parameters	Estimate*	Source
US population	307,024,641	[6]
Estimated attack rate	15% (6%-24%)	[2]
Hospitalization rate, relative to attack rate	6% (2%-10%)	6% = CA experience, personal communication 2% = assumption 10% = [5]
ARF rate (relative to hospitalization)	12% (6%-18%)	12% = [5] 6% and 18% = assumption
Mortality rate (relative to ARF)	58% (40%-80%)	58% = [5] 40% and 80% =assumption
Outcomesò	Mean estimate	95% CI
Total cases	46,053,696	36,937,583-55,094,920
Number hospitalizations	2,763,222	2,034,413-3,585,032
ARF cases	331,587	227,866-454,001
Deaths	192,320	125,945-276,482

*Each input parameter was assumed to be normally distributed

^òOutcome estimates and corresponding confidence intervals are based on Monte Carlo simulations, 10,000 trials for each outcome

CA = California, ARF = acute respiratory failure, CI = confidence interval